Analysis of recent coronavirus data for different countries and regions

Note: On March 24 the source of the data suddenly changed the format of the tables. I have updated the script to use data from a different source. If you see problems with any of the plots, please let me know.

Table of contents

Updated on Tuesday 21 April 2020

Author: Javier Moldon

"No matter how much you talk about them or think about them, you will still underestimate exponentials".
Jeremy Howard

General statistics

List of most affected countries

Sorted by highest number of deaths

Deaths Confirmed Recovered Active
Country/Region
United States 42483 (+1956) 792076 (+28482) 71947 (+1009) 677646 (+25517)
Italy 24114 (+454) 181228 (+2256) 48877 (+1822) 108237 (-20)
Spain 20852 (+399) 200210 (+1536) 80587 (+3230) 98771 (-2093)
France 20265 (+547) 155383 (+2489) 37409 (+831) 97709 (+1111)
United Kingdom 16509 (+449) 124743 (+4676) 0 (+0) 108234 (+4227)
Belgium 5828 (+145) 39983 (+1487) 8895 (+138) 25260 (+1204)
Iran 5209 (+91) 83505 (+1294) 59273 (+2250) 19023 (-1047)
Germany 4862 (+276) 147065 (+1881) 91500 (+3500) 50703 (-1895)
China 4632 (+0) 82747 (+12) 77084 (+22) 1031 (-10)
Netherlands 3751 (+67) 33405 (+750) 250 (+0) 29404 (+683)
Brazil 2587 (+125) 40743 (+2089) 22130 (+0) 16026 (+1964)
Turkey 2140 (+123) 90980 (+4674) 13430 (+1454) 75410 (+3097)
Canada 1690 (+103) 36829 (+1773) 12586 (+743) 22553 (+927)
Sweden 1580 (+40) 14777 (+392) 550 (+0) 12647 (+352)
Switzerland 1429 (+36) 27944 (+204) 18600 (+800) 7915 (-632)
Portugal 735 (+21) 20863 (+657) 610 (+0) 19518 (+636)
Ireland 687 (+77) 15652 (+401) 77 (+0) 14888 (+324)
Mexico 686 (+36) 8261 (+764) 2627 (+0) 4948 (+728)
India 592 (+33) 18539 (+924) 3273 (+419) 14674 (+472)
Indonesia 590 (+8) 6760 (+185) 747 (+61) 5423 (+116)
Ecuador 507 (+33) 10128 (+660) 1150 (+89) 8471 (+538)
Romania 478 (+27) 8936 (+190) 2017 (+125) 6441 (+38)
Austria 470 (+18) 14795 (+46) 10631 (+130) 3694 (-102)
Peru 445 (+45) 16325 (+697) 6968 (+157) 8912 (+495)
Philippines 428 (+19) 6459 (+200) 613 (+41) 5418 (+140)

Global situation

These plots show the global situation of the countries with higher number of deaths.

Deaths

Confirmed Cases

World (except China)

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Mon 20 April 2020 165705 (+5412) 2396200 (+74069) 568351 (+20909)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Tue 21 April 2020 169027 ( +4821) 2375081 ( +45219) 587740 ( +22362)
Wed 22 April 2020 173460 ( +4433) 2416031 ( +40950) 608617 ( +20878)
Thu 23 April 2020 177512 ( +4052) 2452965 ( +36934) 627963 ( +19346)
Fri 24 April 2020 181197 ( +3685) 2486156 ( +33191) 645765 ( +17802)
Sat 25 April 2020 184531 ( +3334) 2515884 ( +29729) 662042 ( +16277)

China

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Mon 20 April 2020 4632 (+0) 82747 (+12) 77084 (+22)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Tue 21 April 2020 3432 ( +0) 81352 ( +0) 76635 ( +9)
Wed 22 April 2020 3432 ( +0) 81352 ( +0) 76643 ( +8)
Thu 23 April 2020 3432 ( +0) 81352 ( +0) 76649 ( +7)
Fri 24 April 2020 3432 ( +0) 81352 ( +0) 76655 ( +6)
Sat 25 April 2020 3432 ( +0) 81352 ( +0) 76660 ( +5)

Evolution of cases

All plots have the same information. Left: log scale, right: linear scale. Top: number of confirmed cases, deaths, recovered cases and active cases. An exponential or logistic function is fitted to the data and plotted as a line, with the confidence interval covering uncertainties of the fitted parameters of 1-$\sigma$ . Bottom: deaths per day. Active cases is simply confirmed - (deaths + recovered). Also note that the number of confirmations is not homogeneous among countries because it depends on how many tests are done and to what part of the population. Bottom-right: is a zoom to show the correct scale for deaths. The straight line is a fit to a logistic growth when possible. If the fit does not converge (low number of points in early stages) a simple exponential is used. The dashed line is a prediction based on the fit.

Spain

Spain is following Italy's behaviour and we should expect a smooth peak that lasts several days (more than the model predicts). That is because the peak should be sharp for a given population, but countries are the sum of several big cities with different peaks times. Therefore the peak is wider than predicted by the one-population curve fit.

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Mon 20 April 2020 20852 (+399) 200210 (+1536) 80587 (+3230)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Tue 21 April 2020 20296 ( +143) 192584 ( +1190) 79298 ( +904)
Wed 22 April 2020 20416 ( +121) 193603 ( +1019) 80057 ( +759)
Thu 23 April 2020 20518 ( +102) 194475 ( +872) 80692 ( +635)
Fri 24 April 2020 20604 ( +86) 195219 ( +744) 81221 ( +530)
Sat 25 April 2020 20677 ( +72) 195854 ( +635) 81662 ( +441)

Italy

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Mon 20 April 2020 24114 (+454) 181228 (+2256) 48877 (+1822)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Tue 21 April 2020 23213 ( +177) 174224 ( +1063) 48835 ( +1387)
Wed 22 April 2020 23368 ( +155) 175167 ( +942) 50147 ( +1312)
Thu 23 April 2020 23505 ( +137) 176001 ( +834) 51384 ( +1236)
Fri 24 April 2020 23625 ( +120) 176739 ( +738) 52544 ( +1160)
Sat 25 April 2020 23730 ( +105) 177391 ( +652) 53627 ( +1084)

United Kingdom

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Mon 20 April 2020 16509 (+449) 124743 (+4676) 0 (+0)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Tue 21 April 2020 16697 ( +409) 124975 ( +3238) 124 ( +2)
Wed 22 April 2020 17048 ( +351) 127885 ( +2910) 126 ( +2)
Thu 23 April 2020 17347 ( +299) 130484 ( +2599) 129 ( +2)
Fri 24 April 2020 17600 ( +253) 132794 ( +2309) 131 ( +2)
Sat 25 April 2020 17813 ( +213) 134835 ( +2042) 133 ( +2)

United States

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Mon 20 April 2020 42483 (+1956) 792076 (+28482) 71947 (+1009)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Tue 21 April 2020 45067 ( +2138) 780684 ( +14700) 80212 ( +5282)
Wed 22 April 2020 47038 ( +1970) 793587 ( +12903) 85364 ( +5152)
Thu 23 April 2020 48833 ( +1795) 804857 ( +11270) 90331 ( +4967)
Fri 24 April 2020 50453 ( +1620) 814659 ( +9802) 95068 ( +4736)
Sat 25 April 2020 51900 ( +1448) 823152 ( +8493) 99536 ( +4468)

France

I think the huge increase of death numbers on April 3 is due to this: France's Coronavirus Death Toll Jumps as Nursing Homes Included. April 2, 2020

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Mon 20 April 2020 20265 (+547) 155383 (+2489) 37409 (+831)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Tue 21 April 2020 20208 ( +331) 157813 ( +1399) 47140 ( +3454)
Wed 22 April 2020 20490 ( +282) 159001 ( +1188) 50867 ( +3727)
Thu 23 April 2020 20730 ( +240) 160008 ( +1007) 54888 ( +4021)
Fri 24 April 2020 20932 ( +202) 160859 ( +851) 59227 ( +4339)
Sat 25 April 2020 21103 ( +171) 161578 ( +718) 63909 ( +4682)

Germany

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Mon 20 April 2020 4862 (+276) 147065 (+1881) 91500 (+3500)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Tue 21 April 2020 4855 ( +124) 143528 ( +797) 91780 ( +2041)
Wed 22 April 2020 4965 ( +109) 144209 ( +681) 93545 ( +1765)
Thu 23 April 2020 5061 ( +96) 144790 ( +581) 95063 ( +1517)
Fri 24 April 2020 5144 ( +83) 145284 ( +494) 96360 ( +1297)
Sat 25 April 2020 5216 ( +72) 145705 ( +421) 97464 ( +1104)

Netherlands

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Mon 20 April 2020 3751 (+67) 33405 (+750) 250 (+0)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Tue 21 April 2020 3691 ( +55) 32763 ( +513) 250 ( +0)
Wed 22 April 2020 3739 ( +48) 33224 ( +461) 250 ( +0)
Thu 23 April 2020 3780 ( +41) 33638 ( +414) 250 ( +0)
Fri 24 April 2020 3815 ( +35) 34008 ( +370) 250 ( +0)
Sat 25 April 2020 3845 ( +30) 34337 ( +329) 250 ( +0)

Belgium

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Mon 20 April 2020 5828 (+145) 39983 (+1487) 8895 (+138)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Tue 21 April 2020 6016 ( +180) 39102 ( +658) 8794 ( +155)
Wed 22 April 2020 6172 ( +156) 39688 ( +586) 8928 ( +134)
Thu 23 April 2020 6307 ( +135) 40208 ( +519) 9043 ( +115)
Fri 24 April 2020 6423 ( +116) 40667 ( +459) 9141 ( +98)
Sat 25 April 2020 6522 ( +99) 41071 ( +404) 9224 ( +83)

Sweden

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Mon 20 April 2020 1580 (+40) 14777 (+392) 550 (+0)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Tue 21 April 2020 1644 ( +57) 14987 ( +403) 579 ( +14)
Wed 22 April 2020 1694 ( +51) 15365 ( +379) 590 ( +12)
Thu 23 April 2020 1740 ( +45) 15719 ( +354) 600 ( +10)
Fri 24 April 2020 1780 ( +40) 16049 ( +329) 609 ( +8)
Sat 25 April 2020 1815 ( +35) 16354 ( +305) 616 ( +7)

Poland

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Mon 20 April 2020 380 (+20) 9593 (+306) 1133 (+93)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Tue 21 April 2020 385 ( +11) 9442 ( +210) 1209 ( +77)
Wed 22 April 2020 395 ( +10) 9630 ( +188) 1279 ( +70)
Thu 23 April 2020 403 ( +8) 9799 ( +168) 1341 ( +62)
Fri 24 April 2020 411 ( +7) 9948 ( +150) 1395 ( +54)
Sat 25 April 2020 417 ( +6) 10081 ( +133) 1442 ( +47)

Switzerland

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Mon 20 April 2020 1429 (+36) 27944 (+204) 18600 (+800)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Tue 21 April 2020 1408 ( +18) 27147 ( +87) 17891 ( +243)
Wed 22 April 2020 1423 ( +15) 27221 ( +74) 18091 ( +200)
Thu 23 April 2020 1437 ( +13) 27283 ( +62) 18254 ( +164)
Fri 24 April 2020 1448 ( +11) 27336 ( +53) 18388 ( +133)
Sat 25 April 2020 1458 ( +10) 27381 ( +45) 18496 ( +108)

Iran

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Mon 20 April 2020 5209 (+91) 83505 (+1294) 59273 (+2250)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Tue 21 April 2020 5076 ( +40) 83782 ( +896) 64077 ( +2451)
Wed 22 April 2020 5112 ( +36) 84598 ( +816) 66444 ( +2367)
Thu 23 April 2020 5144 ( +32) 85339 ( +741) 68716 ( +2273)
Fri 24 April 2020 5173 ( +29) 86011 ( +672) 70888 ( +2172)
Sat 25 April 2020 5198 ( +26) 86619 ( +608) 72953 ( +2065)

Comparison of different countries

Early onset: China regions

Most of the regions have almost completed the cycle and active cases are disappearing. Note that China Hubei (the original area) has a large number of confirmed cases (70000), but the other regions have very low number of cases, with number around 1200-500 or even less.

Other countries

South Korea has a remarkable recovery rate, with many cases and a reduced number of deaths. Japan growth is moderate, much smaller than in European countries. Iran is showing hints of flattening, although it is curious that the number of recoveries has significantly slowed down while the number of deaths still follow a very exponential trend.